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Analyst Opinions

EPCL - Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd.
DAWH buying EPCL shares with PKR 2bn
Asad Rafiq    12/14/2022 2:29:29 PM
Company PVC margins down below $400/ton. Steep decline in margins of 60% CYTD. DAWH announced to buy EPCL of PKR2bn in its portfolio (as per PSX Rule book, this period of buy could be within six months) Major support area is at 40. EPCL can be accumulated in range of 40-45
- General News
STOCKS TO WATCH IN FY23 RECESSION.
Iqra Nadeeem    12/14/2022 1:20:36 PM
An investment strategy plan for FY23, where we have picked stocks keeping recessionary factor. Based on previous recession analogy we buoyed Information Technology / Telecommunication sector, Food sector and Health sector. The selected stocks from each sector is mentioned in our FY23 strategy report.
Link: http://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Strategy%20during%20recession.pdf
BAHL - Bank AL-Habib Ltd.
Bank Al Habib Banking on non-core income
Muhammad Shahzad Khan    2/9/2022 3:51:28 PM
Bank Al-Habib Ltd (BAHL) announced its CY21 financial results. The middle tier bank reported bumper net earnings of PKR 18.7bn (EPS: PKR 16.83/sh) as against PKR.17.8bn (EPS:PKR16.03 /sh) reported in the same period last year. This is by far BAHL’s highest EPS in current history. The bank also approved highest yearly final cash dividend of PKR7/sh albeit payout ratio of 41.5% - a good jump from previous year. BAHL yields CY20/CY21 PE & PBV of 4.06x/4.56x & 0.9x/0.85x respectively. BAHL CY21 forecasted book value was PKR 91/sh.
MCB - MCB Bank Ltd.
MCB Bank Dividend stream continues
Muhammad Shahzad Khan    2/9/2022 12:02:24 PM
We expect MCB to report net earnings of PKR28.24bn (EPS: PKR23.83/sh) as against Rs.29bn (EPS: Rs.24.5/sh) reported in the same period last year. The bank is also expected to approve final cash dividend of PKR 6/sh (cumulative cash dividend of PKR 20/sh). MCB yields CY20/CY21 PE & PBV of 7.56x/6.80x & 1.35/0.95 respectively. MCB deciphers Justified PBV price of PKR 265/- which is at a 38% discount of current market price.
LUCK - Lucky Cement Ltd.
Improvement in Standalone Earnings
Iqra Nadeem    1/31/2022 1:03:29 PM
On consolidated basis LUCK earned PKR154.5bn in revenue, where as, standalone cement sales revenue recorded an increase of 20%yoy. Although, total dispatches declined by 6% to 4.70mn tons albeit decline in export volumes by 20%yoy on the back of increased coal and other input prices. Upcoming Coal based project,Cement expansion project & Commencement of Samsang brand mobile phone production will drove LUCK earnings ahead in coming quarters.
HTL - Hi-Tech Lubricants Ltd
OMC stations in Punjab
Asad Rafiq    11/16/2021 4:43:44 PM
HTL is aggressively bringing OMC sites in Punjab and their petrol handling increasing every quarter. In a recent announcement - HTL got approval to enhance fuel outlets to 52 in Punjab province. We consider HTL in a growth phase as a new OMC.
PTL - Panther Tyres Ltd.
Tyres demand seems to accelerate.
Iqra Nadeem    6/21/2021 1:12:55 PM
Panther is a manufacturer of tyre & tubes & exporter of wheelbarrow to more than 12 countries. PTL enjoys a principle share in replacement market (RM) and having affiliation with OEMs. PTL entered into recent contract with AGTL for regular supply of tractor tyres. PTL can report FY21 EPS of Rs7.7/sh. PTL margins improved qoq basis.
FCCL - Fauji Cement Company Ltd.
Investment opportunity
Faisal Shaji    5/24/2021 1:05:21 PM
In continuation to our earlier report, we stick to FCCL FY21 earnings estimation to ~Rs2.8sh (adj.) in the wake of increase in volume sales & slight increase in retention rates in northern zone in general and FCCL in particular as per our estimation. FCCL retention rates are slightly lower. However, we see less leveraged balance sheet is yielding lofted earnings.We also expect FCCL to pay cash dividend in lieu of earnings during FY21. FCCL yields FY21 & FY22 PE of 8.4x and 6.0x respectively.
KOHC - Kohat Cement Company Ltd.
Capacity absorption play
Faisal Shaji    5/18/2021 11:42:21 AM
We have tabulated FY21 earnings of KOHC. The company after carrying out expansion dispatched 6% - 7% of total cement produced till 9MFY21 in the country. KOHC supplied ~2.85mn tons out of total 43.33mn ton reported till 9MFY21. It’s a 63% growth from last year. We expect KOHC to report Rs17.4/sh in FY21 and a probable cash dividend of Rs2/sh. KOHC announced a greenfield project in Dist. Khushab. However, we see KOHC turnaround is being reflected from improved utilization and capacity increase.
CEPB - Century Paper & Board Mills Ltd.
Best company in paper and board packaging segment
Faisal Shaji    4/29/2021 10:46:25 AM
CEPB reported 9MFY21 EPS of Rs13.5/sh. CEPB is undervalued with FY21 PE of 5.5x. CEPB business season starts from September till March given supplies to customers. CEPB is price maker in packaging segment. Also the demand for packaging products enhanced during period of Covid19. Given lock down, restaurant businesses absorption to increase of home supplies.
STCL - Shabbir Tiles & Ceramics Ltd.
9MFY21 EPS Rs3.2
Faisal Shaji    4/29/2021 10:35:39 AM
Shabbir Tiles reported 9MFY21 EPS of Rs3.2/sh. STCL 9M sales reached Rs7.5bn. Stile brand doing good business recently given housing boom. After duties imposed on imported tiles, the local tiles in demand and STCL is doing roaring business with main Chinese competitor at Pindi Bhattian is a price maker. This indirect factor is favorable to STCL. STCL FY21 EPS could touch Rs4/sh. STCL offers FY21 PE of 6.5x.
TRG - TRG Pakistan
Associate companies showing profits
Faisal Shaji    4/8/2021 2:22:26 PM
TRG Pakistan is providing call center services to international customers. TRG is managing 7000 employees, which is single largest strength in providing IT related services to international customers from Pakistan. As for valuations of TRG, TRGIL is an associate company. TRGIL made investment in e-telequote (categories related to e-health, medicare etc), IBEX (call center company already listed at Nasdaq) & Affiniti (Artificial Intelligence). TRG is an asset class for shareholders where they can mainly see top line growth. Since two fiscal years, the consolidated EBITDA is positive.
CHCC - Cherat Cement Company Ltd.
Maximum capacity utilization
Faisal Shaji    3/30/2021 2:56:40 PM
Retention rates in northern zone increases in line with retail prices. Northern zone players supplying cements to locally at better margins with enhanced capacity. CHCC entire capacity sales absorption will likely to propel its FY21 EPS. We already see increasing trend in cement dispatches due to construction of Dasu Dam and PMs housing program.
FABL - Faysal Bank Ltd.
Structural changes in bank
Faisal Shaji    3/30/2021 2:39:26 PM
FABL will soon be recognized as scheduled Islamic Bank. From directors report it is being ascertained that FABL operations will be converted into Sharia based given its majority holding of DMI Bahrain. FABL yield P/BV of 0.4x and provide long term attractive proposition.
PIOC - Pioneer Cement Ltd.
Local utilization increased
Faisal Shaji    3/30/2021 1:08:41 PM
PIOC cement dispatches increased in FY21 given infrastructure work at South Punjab districts of Mianwali etc. Govt. has carried out infrastructure projects in South Punjab wherein PIOC is located at Khushab. At present retention rates in northern zone increased & retail prices are hovering above Rs600/bag. Hence this is a turnaround in margins and earnings for PIOC