Analyst Opinions

OGDC - Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd.
OGDC Confirms Breakout Above Key Resistance
M Wajahat    7/3/2026 12:00:00 AM
OGDC has decisively broken above a key resistance zone, confirming renewed buying interest and reinforcing its bullish technical outlook. The breakout reflects strengthening price momentum, and with the uptrend remaining intact, investors may consider accumulating the stock within the PKR 339.10–340.15 range for potential upside targets of PKR 351.15, 371.25, and 391.23. To manage risk and protect against downside volatility, a stop-loss is recommended at PKR 305.04
Link: https://scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20OGDC%20July%2003,%202026...pdf
JVDC - Javedan Corporation Ltd.
JVDC Shows Strong Recovery from Support
M Wajahat    7/3/2026 12:00:00 AM
JVDC has successfully rebounded from its support zone, indicating renewed buying interest and reaffirming the stock’s bullish technical outlook. The stock is now approaching its first target of PKR 161.15, and with momentum remaining strong, investors may continue to hold positions for further upside potential toward PKR 171.15, 182.97, and 189.65. In line with the improving price structure, the stop-loss has been revised upward to PKR 143.50 to ensure prudent risk management and safeguard accumulated gains
Link: https://scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20JVDC%20July%2003,%202026...pdf
SEARL - The Searle Company Ltd. Consolidated
SEARL Holds Key Support Zone, Reinforcing Bullish Structure
M Wajahat    7/3/2026 12:00:00 AM
SEARL has successfully held its key support zone, signaling renewed buying interest and reinforcing the stock’s bullish technical outlook. With momentum remaining intact, investors may continue to hold their positions for potential upside targets of PKR 99.45, 105.13, and 113.35. In line with the strengthening price structure, the stop-loss has been revised upward to PKR 88.80 to maintain disciplined risk management and protect accumulated gains
Link: https://scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20SEARL%20July%2003,%202026...pdf
Future Outlook for Bond Yield in the Country (Next 12–18 Months)
Atif Saeed Rana    7/3/2026 12:00:00 AM
Over the next 12–18 months, Pakistan's bond market is expected to remain relatively stable, supported by moderating inflation, improving macroeconomic conditions, and continued implementation of IMF-supported reforms. While the State Bank of Pakistan may undertake limited additional policy easing, the scope for further significant declines in bond yields is likely to be constrained. High government borrowing requirements, global oil price volatility, exchange-rate pressures, and changing global financial conditions remain the key risks that could place upward pressure on yields. Consequently, the most probable outlook is for stable to slightly lower bond yields, with investment returns increasingly driven by interest income rather than capital gains as the interest rate cycle approaches stabilization. PIB yields have generally exhibited a downward trend in recent auctions, reflecting easing inflation expectations, improved macroeconomic stability, and market anticipation that the State Bank of Pakistan is approaching or entering a gradual monetary easing cycle. Tenor Earlier Cut-off Yield Latest Cut-off Yield Change 2-Year 12.50% 11.45% ? 105 bps 3-Year 12.50% 11.49% ? 101 bps 5-Year 12.50% 11.63% ? 87 bps 10-Year ~12.61%* 12.14% ? ~47 bps The decline is most pronounced in the 2- and 3-year tenors, indicating strong market expectations of lower policy rates in the near term. Medium- and long-term yields have also fallen, though at a slower pace, reflecting reduced inflation and sovereign risk premiums. The downward movement across the yield curve suggests increasing investor confidence and stronger demand for fixed-income securities. If inflation continues to moderate, PIB yields are likely to trend lower over the next 6–18 months, particularly in the 3–10 year segment
MEBL - Meezan Bank Ltd.
MEBL ascending channel pattern breakout
M Wajahat    7/2/2026 12:00:00 AM
MEBL has successfully broken above its ascending channel pattern, signaling strengthening bullish momentum and an improving technical outlook. Investors may consider accumulating the stock within the PKR 553.45–555.56 range, with potential upside targets of PKR 573.25, 592.33, and 625.15. The breakout is supported by sustained buying interest and constructive price action, reinforcing a positive near- to medium-term outlook for the stock. To maintain disciplined risk management, a stop-loss is recommended at PKR 505.15. ??
Link: https://scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20MEBL%20July%2002,%202026....pdf
AKBL - Askari Bank Ltd.
AKBL Breaks Above Key Resistance, Bullish Momentum Strengthens
M Wajahat    7/2/2026 12:00:00 AM
AKBL has decisively broken out above its key resistance zone, indicating strengthening bullish momentum and an improved technical setup. Investors may consider accumulating the stock in the PKR 112.99–113.45 range, with potential upside targets of PKR 118.95, PKR 124.54, and PKR 132.15. The breakout is backed by healthy buying interest and positive price action, supporting a constructive near- to medium-term outlook. To manage risk effectively, a stop-loss is recommended at PKR 100.13
Link: https://scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20AKBL%20July%2002,%202026....pdf
PTC - Pakistan Telecommunication Co. Ltd.
PTC Breaks Above Key Resistance on Strong Volume, Reinforcing Bullish Momentum
M Wajahat    7/2/2026 12:00:00 AM
PTC has successfully broken its key resistance zone , signaling strengthening bullish momentum and an improving technical outlook. Investors may consider accumulating the stock within the PKR 72.07 - 72.57 range, with potential upside targets at PKR 76.65, 80.30, and 86.71. The breakout is supported by sustained buying interest and constructive price action, reinforcing a positive near- to medium-term outlook for the stock. To manage downside risk, a stop-loss is recommended at PKR 64.80
Link: https://scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20PTC%20July%2002,%202026....pdf
LSE SPAC-II Limited – IPO
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    7/1/2026 12:00:00 AM
LSE SPAC-II is not a conventional operating company; it does not currently own any business, generate revenue, or provide products or services. Its sole purpose is to raise capital through an IPO and subsequently acquire or merge with an operating business. Business Objective The company's primary objective is to identify, acquire, or merge with a suitable target company within three years of its listing on the PSX. Following the business combination, the acquired entity will effectively become the operating business of the listed SPAC. According to the company prospectus, they had neither identified nor entered into discussions with any specific acquisition target. As such, investors are investing in the management team's ability to identify and execute a suitable transaction in the future rather than in an existing operating business. IPO Details 1. Issue Size: 2 million ordinary shares 2. Issue Price: PKR 10/sh (Fixed Price Method) 3. Pre-IPO Allocation: 1.8 million shares (90%) 4. Public Offering: 2mn shares (10%) 5. Bidding Date: 2 -3 July, 2026 Use of Proceeds The IPO proceeds are intended to finance a future acquisition or business combination. In accordance with Pakistan's SPAC regulations: • At least 90% of the IPO proceeds will be placed in a regulated escrow account, where the funds will remain protected until a qualifying acquisition is completed. • Up to 10% of the proceeds may be used for operating expenses, regulatory compliance, due diligence, professional advisory fees, and identifying potential acquisition opportunities.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
LUCK - Lucky Cement Ltd. Consolidated
Lucky Cement Expands Karachi Plant Capacity by 300,000 Tons
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    7/1/2026 12:00:00 AM
Lucky Cement has announced an expansion of its Karachi-based cement plant, increasing production capacity by 300,000 tons to 5.35 million tons per annum. Following this expansion, the company’s total production capacity will rise to 15.6 million tons per annum.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
ISL - International Steels Ltd.
ISL Strongly holds its support zone
M Wajahat    6/30/2026 12:00:00 AM
ISL has successfully held its key support zone, signaling renewed buying interest and reinforcing the stock’s bullish technical outlook. Having already achieved its first target, the stock continues to exhibit strong momentum, and investors may consider holding positions for further upside targets of 98.52, 107.25, and 113.13. In line with the strengthening price structure, the stop-loss has been revised upward to 86.10 to maintain disciplined risk management
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20ISL%20June%2030,%202026.....pdf
ILP - Interloop Limited
ILP Break its resistance zone with volume
M Wajahat    6/30/2026 12:00:00 AM
ILP has successfully broken above its key resistance zone, reaffirming its bullish technical structure and signaling renewed buying interest. Having already achieved its first two targets, the stock continues to exhibit strong momentum, and investors may consider holding positions for further upside targets of 113.56, 121.12, and 128.45. In line with the improving price structure, the stop-loss has been revised upward to 98.51 to maintain disciplined risk management and protect accumulated gains.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20ILP%20June%2030,%202026.....pdf
TOMCL - The Organic Meat Company Ltd.
TOMCL has successfully broken its trendline
M Wajahat    6/30/2026 12:00:00 AM
TOMCL has successfully broken above its key trendline resistance, signaling renewed buying interest and reinforcing the stock’s bullish technical outlook. Having already achieved its first four targets, the stock continues to exhibit strong momentum, and investors may consider holding positions for further upside targets of 49.32, 53.40, and 59.61. In line with the strengthening price structure, the stop-loss has been revised upward to 39.96 to maintain disciplined risk management and protect accumulated gains.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20TOMCL%20June%2030,%202026.....pdf
SLM - Service Long March Tyres Limited
SLM Increases TBR Tyre Production Capacity by 25%
SCS Research update    6/29/2026 12:00:00 AM
SLM, in a notice to the PSX, announced that it has successfully enhanced its production capacity for Truck and Bus Radial (TBR) tyres. The company’s annual production capacity has increased from 1.6 million tyres to 2.0 million tyres, reflecting an expansion of approximately 25%.
Link: https://dps.psx.com.pk/download/document/279206.pdf
SRVI - Service Industries Ltd.
Service Industries to Seek Shareholder Approval for 10-for-1 Share Split at Aug. 4 EOGM
SCS Research update    6/29/2026 12:00:00 AM
Service Industries Limited's Board of Directors has approved a proposal to split the company's ordinary shares by reducing their face value from Rs 10 to Rs 1/sh, facilitating a 10-for-1 stock split. The proposal will be placed before shareholders for approval at an Extraordinary General Meeting (EOGM) scheduled for August 4, 2026, in Lahore. The company has also announced that its share transfer books will remain closed from July 29 to August 4, 2026, both days inclusive.
Link: https://dps.psx.com.pk/download/document/279157.pdf
ILP - Interloop Limited
Big Favor for Export-Based Textile Companies
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    6/24/2026 12:00:00 AM
As part of the approved Finance Bill 2026, the Super Tax will not apply to companies whose export receipts exceed 80% of their total turnover during the financial year (compared to the earlier Budget proposal of a 2% reduction in Super Tax from the previous 10%). This development is particularly positive for large textile exporters such as Interloop Limited (ILP) and Gul Ahmed Textile Mills (GATM), as it significantly improves their after-tax earnings outlook. The export contribution of key companies is as follows: FML derives approximately 96% of its sales from exports, ILP around 94%, and GATM about 91%. Based on this criterion, these companies fall under the exemption category.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
MLCF - Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. Consolidated
MLCF Resistance turned into Support zone.
M Wajahat    6/24/2026 12:00:00 AM
MLCF has successfully broken above a key resistance zone, signaling renewed buying interest and strengthening bullish sentiment. We are pleased to note that three upside targets have already been achieved, reflecting the stock’s strong price performance. With momentum still intact, investors may continue to hold positions for the next upside targets at 105.72, 112.30, and 118.35. To maintain disciplined risk management, the stop-loss is now revised to below 97.95.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20MLCF%20June%2024,%202026....pdf
PAEL - Pak Elektron Ltd.
Trendline Resistance Breakout
M Wajahat    6/24/2026 12:00:00 AM
PAEL has successfully broken above its trendline resistance, signaling renewed buying interest and reinforcing the stock’s bullish technical outlook. This breakout reflects improving price strength, and with momentum remaining intact, investors may continue to hold positions for upside targets at 46.12, 49.15, and 53.35. To maintain disciplined risk management, a stop-loss is advised at 38.49.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20PAEL%20June%2024,%202026....pdf
PAEL - Pak Elektron Ltd.
Trendline Resistance Breakout
M Wajahat    6/24/2026 12:00:00 AM
PAEL has successfully broken above its trendline resistance, signaling renewed buying interest and reinforcing the stock’s bullish technical outlook. This breakout reflects improving price strength, and with momentum remaining intact, investors may continue to hold positions for upside targets at 46.12, 49.15, and 53.35. To maintain disciplined risk management, a stop-loss is advised at 38.49.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20PAEL%20June%2024,%202026....pdf
CNERGY - Cnergyico Pk Ltd. (Byco Petroleum)
Cnergy Book Value increased to PKR 40.4/sh
SCS Research update    6/24/2026 12:00:00 AM
CNERGY is on the radar post June Operating at 100% through-put The main player may benefit from refining Iranian crude supplies It's already in 3Q profits CNERGY enjoys the highest shareholders' equity amount of PKR 220bn in the balance sheet vs ATRL equity of PKR 159bn CNERGY yields 9M Book Value of PKR 40.4/sh ATRL is yielding 9M Book Value PKR 1494/sh
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
DGKC - D. G. Khan Cement Company Ltd.
DGKC Resistance turned into Support zone.
Wajahat    6/23/2026 12:00:00 AM
DGKC has successfully broken above a key resistance zone, validating the breakout and reinforcing its constructive bullish outlook. The achievement of the first two upside targets highlights the strength of prevailing momentum and sustained investor interest. Investors may continue to hold positions for the next upside objectives at 235.65, 245.15, and 257.52, subject to favorable market conditions and continued buying activity. To preserve gains and maintain prudent risk management, the stop-loss is now revised to below 201.15.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Technical%20Analysis%20Report%20DGKC%20June%2023,%202026...pdf
LOTCHEM: Margin Recovery??
SCS Research update    6/18/2026 12:00:00 AM
LOTCHEM is sitting at an EBITDA margin of 12.7%, showing operational recovery Hence, LOTCHEM is currently yielding EBITDA amounting to PKR 2.65bn (~4bn reported on Dec 31, 2025) So far, the reported gross margins improved to 14% in 1Q, which was merely 6% in the same period last year We see PTA-Px margins improving, as per our reading (Sunsirs ~$250/ton) The local PTA prices may be hovering at ~PKR 250k tons LOTCHEM reported EBITDA of PKR18bn in FY22, which was the peak point, but currently sitting at PKR 2.65bn, we expect it may increase this year, mainly given 1) an increase in PTA-Px margins 2) decrease in local grid cost (maybe PKR 26 - 36/kWh) Earlier LOTCHEM reported 1Q EPS of PKR 0.97/sh The sales were slightly down by 3.2%, i.e., PKR 20.8bn vs PKR 21.5bn reported for the same period last year 2Q quantity sales may improve from 80k tons We witnessed improved COGS control, which supported margins, i.e., gross margins increased up to 14% whereby gross profit jumped by 123% to PKR 2.9bn vs PKR 1.3bn reported last year We see early signs of cost discipline under the new management team. This indicates a management transition from the previous Korean team
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
HUBC - The Hub Power Company Ltd. Consolidated
Hub Power Company
SCS Research update    6/18/2026 12:00:00 AM
- HUBC pays a cash dividend of PKR 5/sh in every quarter - HUBC via Mega Motors to install BYD EV Variants in Gharo, Sindh, from October 2026 onwards, wherein an LC is established - Mega to produce 25k EV vehicles, which contribute more than PKR 10/sh on EPS - HUBC has recouped earnings in FY26 (after the government scrapped its 1995 IPP agreement) - Now HUBC is getting revised CPP on Narowal - HUBC is a bond-like stock with ~10% cash yield
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
Mughal: Earnings Growth Outlook & Revenue Forecasting REP033Copper Segment Outlook
SCS Research update    6/15/2026 12:00:00 AM
> Mughal sold 1,737 tons of copper in 9MFY26, generating approximately PKR 6.5 bn in revenue. > We expect copper export sales to increase in 4QFY26. > Assuming the company sells 4,000 tons of copper in 4QFY26: > Expected copper revenue: PKR 15 bn > Expected net profit from copper segment: PKR 0.75 bn > Assumed net profit margin: 5% > Expected copper EPS contribution: PKR 2.23 per share > We expect the overall EPS to reach PKR 8/sh > Expected FY26 P/E is 11x > Expected FY27 P/E is 6x SCS Research update
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
FATIMA - Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd.
Fatima Fertilizers - a case of compounding
SCS Research update    6/11/2026 12:00:00 AM
Fatima Fertilizer_ is shaping up as a classic “defensive growth” name on the PSX, and those numbers you posted line up with why it’s getting attention: Valuation + Income - PE 5.8x, PBV 1.7x: Cheap vs PSX average and vs global fertilizer peers. The market isn’t pricing in much earnings growth. - *Dividend yield >10%*: Fatima has a track record of high payouts because cash flows are stable and _capex_ is low once plants are running. Why margins are holding up: - Optimized gas: Fertilizer is energy-intensive. Fatima Fertilizers' access to allocated gas at reasonable rates keeps input costs down vs plants relying on RLNG. - Urea + CAN demand: Stable demand + import restrictions keep local prices supported. - Lower finance costs: There is an unleveraged balance sheet, which further boosts EPS. The Natural Resources kicker: Exposure to Natural Resources Limited, alongside Mari Energies and Lucky Cement, puts Fatima Fertilizers in the Balochistan copper/gold/rare earth story. It’s early-stage and not in current earnings, but it’s a free optionality if exploration succeeds. There is a strong chance of positive cash flows in 2031. Risks to watch: 1. Gas policy changes – any cut in allocated gas or price hike hits margins fast. 2. Subsidy/floor price changes – gov’t controls urea pricing, so farm economics + fiscal health matter. 3. Commodity urea prices – if global urea crashes, local prices may follow. Bottom line: At 5.8x PE + 10%+ yield, Fatima Fertilizers can keep compounding through 2026. The Natural Resources exposure is not in the price yet.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
Daily Technical Calls and Support
SCS Update    6/11/2026 12:00:00 AM
SCS uploads daily technical calls to its website. Follow the link below to stay updated on upcoming and valuable calls: For SCS clients, for any technical queries, please call: UAN (021) 111-111-721 Ext. 123.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/RE_Technical_Reports.aspx
CHCC - Cherat Cement Company Ltd.
Cherat Cement is planning a share buyback of up to 4% of its capital
SCS Research update    6/10/2026 12:00:00 AM
Key details.... - The buyback is part of a set of strategic initiatives the company is pursuing, pending shareholder approval in June 2026. - It was announced alongside other moves: a PKR 300 mn investment in Cherat Packaging Ltd (CPPL) and entry into mining via a JV. - The announcement came during a tough quarter - Q3 FY26 net profit fell 30% QoQ and 16% YoY due to lower dispatches and higher coal prices. The buyback hasn’t been executed yet - it still needs shareholders to sign off at the June 2026 meeting.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
FECTC - Fecto Cement Ltd.
FECTC Islamabad land value in focus
SCS Research update    6/9/2026 12:00:00 AM
? Fecto Cement maintains a strategically significant industrial asset through its manufacturing facility located in Sangjani, Islamabad. ? The plant is situated on approximately 237.64 acres of freehold land, representing a substantial long-term asset base. ? This area is equivalent to approximately 38,022.4 marlas. ? Based on an estimated market rate of PKR 0.5mn – 0.8 mn per marla, the implied valuation of the land is approximately PKR 19bn to 25bn. ? The per-share land value (after tax) has a minimum price of PKR 293/sh. ? At a higher benchmark rate of PKR 2.2 mn per marla, the implied valuation increases significantly to approximately PKR 83.65 bn. ? This analysis highlights the considerable intrinsic value embedded in the company’s industrial land.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
MTL - Millat Tractors Ltd. Consolidated
MTL Updates:
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    6/9/2026 12:00:00 AM
1. Stock Split: Millat Tractors Limited (MTL) has approved a subdivision of its shares, reducing the face value from Rs 10 to Rs 5. Issued shares will increase from ~199.5 million to ~399.0 million. This stock split improves liquidity and affordability without affecting shareholder rights or overall business value. 2. Financial Support for Subsidiary: The Board of MTL has approved providing financial backing to its subsidiary, Millat Industrial Products Limited (MIPL), for the E-Bike Project. MTL will issue a Corporate Guarantee, Letter of Comfort, or other security arrangements up to a maximum of PKR 1.5 billion (Rupees One Billion Five Hundred Million Only).
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
POWER - Power Cement Ltd.
Power Cement notes ....SCS published report
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    6/4/2026 12:00:00 AM
Power Cement has a production capacity of around 3.4 million tons per annum, produced primarily at its Nooriabad plant in Karachi, Sindh. ? POWER yields leading PE of 7.59x, PBV of 0.9x, and annualized net margin of ~10%. ? The company has the potential to export.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Power%20Cement....pdf
MUGHAL - Mughal Iron & Steels Ind. Ltd.
Mughal Steel - Copper LME touches $13,981/ton
SCS Research update    6/4/2026 12:00:00 AM
? Mughal Steel has been exporting copper ingots to China for many years. ? During April 2026, copper-related sales increased in the export data tracked by our research.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
FATIMA - Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd.
Fertilizer | Urea Offtake May’26
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    6/2/2026 12:00:00 AM
May’26 urea sales came in at ~419k tons, essentially unchanged from 418k tons a year ago, per provisional figures. Compared to April, offtake was down 10% as the market cooled off after farmers front-loaded purchases last month amid fears of price hikes tied to Middle East instability. The trend varied by company. FFC sold 257k tons, well above 207k tons in May’25. FATIMA and AGL also gained, with 87k tons and 31k tons vs 54k tons and 15k tons SPLY. EFERT went the other way, falling to 43k tons from 142k tons last year. For Jan-May’26, total urea offtake is tracking 9% higher YoY at 1,920k tons vs 1,768k tons, helped by stronger farm incomes. FFC is driving the growth with offtake up 29%YoY to 1,099k tons. Meanwhile, EFERT and FATIMA are both down 11%YoY, at 431k tons and 275k tons. On the stock side, industry-wide inventory fell to 990k tons from 1,316k tons SPLY. EFERT still carries the heaviest load at 637k tons, with FATIMA at 221k tons and FFC at 112k tons. We prefer Fatima & FFC.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
Property Sector: Emerging Relief Measures
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    6/1/2026 12:00:00 AM
The FBR, Ministry of Finance, and IMF are reportedly discussing tax relief measures for the real estate sector to revive activity and attract overseas Pakistani investment. Possible measures include: - Lower withholding tax on property transactions. - Reduction in Capital Gains Tax (CGT). - Further rationalization of FBR property valuations. - Steps to improve market liquidity. - Incentives for overseas Pakistanis. Market chatter suggests transaction taxes may be reduced significantly, but no final approval has been announced yet. Our coverage companies, LUCK, FECTC, POWER, FCCL
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
SBP Next Treasury Bill Auction
SCS Research update    6/1/2026 12:00:00 AM
The next SBP Treasury Bill auction is expected to see stable to slightly higher cut-off yields. The current 3M yield is 12.5683%. Recent auctions have shown an upward trend in yields as the market adjusts to the latest increase in the SBP policy rate. Higher government borrowing needs may continue to put pressure on yields, while strong liquidity in the banking system is likely to support demand and limit any sharp rise. The 6M and 12M tenors are expected to see a modest increase in yields, with current rates at 13.0558% and 13.6996%, respectively, while the 3M tenor may remain relatively stable. A higher cut-off yield would reflect expectations of persistent inflation and a cautious monetary policy stance. Overall, the market does not expect an immediate rate cut, and yields are likely to remain firm in the near term. The monetary policy is expected to be held on 15 June 2026, making this the last auction before the MPC decision.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
EV & Hybrid Tax Review Ahead of FY27 Budget
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    6/1/2026 12:00:00 AM
The government is reportedly considering withdrawing preferential GST rates for hybrid and electric vehicles in the upcoming FY27 budget as part of broader tax rationalization measures. If implemented, GST on EVs could rise from 1% to 18%, while hybrid vehicles may also be taxed at the standard GST rate. Among listed companies, SAZEW appears most exposed due to its strong reliance on Haval hybrid SUV sales. INDU could also face pressure through Corolla Cross Hybrid demand, while HCAR may see slower adoption of its future hybrid offerings. In addition, NPL and NCPL have indirect exposure through their stake in NexGen Auto (JAECOO), making the budget outcome important for their growth narrative. Overall, any withdrawal of EV and hybrid tax incentives would likely be negative for SAZEW, INDU, NPL, and NCPL, while also slowing momentum in Pakistan’s emerging new-energy vehicle market.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
NATF - National Foods Ltd.
_National Foods (NATF): Eid ul-Adha boom_ | SCS Update
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    5/29/2026 12:00:00 AM
We expect NATF to experience a seasonal uplift in sales during the Eid al-Adha period, which will be reflected in its 4Q posting in FY26. This is due to trademark spices, recipe mixes, sauces, and BBQ-related product categories that may have been consumed during Eid al-Sacrifice. However, while the seasonal demand impact remains positive, the market will likely focus more on the sustainability of growth beyond the festive period. NATF continues to benefit from its established distribution network and strong positioning within the packaged food segment, supporting demand resilience despite broader economic pressures. We estimate 4QFY26 earnings to clock in at ~PKR 13.3/share (Cumulative FY26 Earnings could be PKR 35.6/share). NATF is currently yielding at P/E multiple of 10.53x. In addition, the food sector is currently trading at approximately 15.3x earnings, which suggests further upside potential for the stock given NATF’s earnings momentum, strong brand equity, and defensive business profile. SCS expects NATF to experience a seasonal uplift in sales during the Eid al-Adha period, which will be reflected in 4Q. SCS Research
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
AGP - AGP Ltd.
AGP Notice at PSX
SCS Research update    5/22/2026 12:00:00 AM
The company will add 4 new subsidiaries and land spanning over 3 acres. Company earnings will increase to PKR 20/sh from PKR 8/sh. We expect it to have the potential to reach PKR 300/sh at a P/E of 15x, although the pharmaceutical industry, on average, trades at 20x.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
PREMA - At-Tahur Ltd.
PREMA - Enters into Premium Water Segment
SCS Research update    5/20/2026 12:00:00 AM
Product Launch - Launched ‘Prema Natural Spring Water’ to enter the premium water segment. Financial Performance - 9MFY26 - EPS: PKR 1.87, up 19% YoY vs PKR 1.57 - EBIT: PKR 6.9bn, up 21% YoY vs PKR 5.7bn - Sales: PKR 5.1bn, up 24.4% YoY vs PKR 4.1bn Valuation Metrics - Forward P/E: 11.3x (food sector multiple) We assume biological assets of 3000 cows producing milk.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mahsan178/
FFC - Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. Consolidated
*Pakistan Fertilizer Sector – Sharp Surge in Urea Sales*
SCS Research update    5/20/2026 12:00:00 AM
Urea offtake up 85% YoY to 463k tons in April 2026 – the highest level recorded in 15 years. Cumulative urea sales (4MCY26) up 11% YoY to 1.5 million tons. Growth was driven by early crop sowing, improved farm incomes, and pre-buying amid rising global prices. Market Leaders: Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) and Fatima Fertilizer led the market. Both doubled their urea sales. Market shares reached 52% (FFC) and 22% (Fatima). Engro Fertilizers underperformed, with market share declining to 23% despite higher volumes. Other Fertilizer Segments: DAP sales declined 11% YoY due to higher prices and prior stockpiling. CAN and NPK segments recorded strong growth. Inventory & Prices: Inventory levels remain elevated, particularly at Engro, but are expected to ease during the Kharif season. Urea prices increased by Rs. 100–150 per bag, with further increases likely due to strong demand and tight supply.
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PTC - Pakistan Telecommunication Co. Ltd.
PTC is the largest fixed-line and broadband provider
SCS Research update    5/19/2026 12:00:00 AM
Pakistan Telecommunications Company (PTC) is likely to benefit if the government goes ahead with the proposed tax relief for FY27, but the benefit depends on how much of the relief actually applies to the PTC business model. The government is considering major tax relief for the telecom/broadband sector in the FY26-27 budget, as per the media outlets. 1. Cut the fiber optic import duty from ~60% to ~5% 2. Reduce taxes on internet services - currently ~19.5% provincial tax + 12.5% federal withholding tax We believe the goal is to speed up Fiber-to-the-Site expansion and get Pakistan ready for 5G. Why does this matter to PTC 1. Cost of network expansion drops PTC is the largest fixed-line and broadband provider, and it’s rolling out fiber under the “PTCL Flash Fiber” brand. Slashing the fiber optic duty from 60% to 5% directly cuts capex for fiber rollout. That makes expansion into new cities and underserved areas more financially viable. 2. More affordable broadband = more subscribers If taxes on internet services are cut, end-user prices fall. Telecom operators argue this will boost penetration and digital inclusion. For PTC, that means higher subscriber growth in broadband and corporate internet. 3. 5G readiness The industry says large-scale fiber is critical for 5G. PTC owns most of Pakistan’s fiber backbone, so it’s positioned to lease/wholesale fiber to mobile operators when 5G launches. PTC faces massive challenges regarding - Legacy fixed-line decline - High operational costs, currency depreciation - Competition from Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) viz. Jazz, Zong on mobile data Beneficial if: The relief on fiber imports & internet taxes goes through as proposed. PTC would see lower capex and potentially faster broadband growth, which is positive for revenue and valuation. Less beneficial if: Only small tweaks are made, or if consumption taxes stay high. PTC would still face cash flow pressure and slow payback on fiber investment, which the industry says takes 8-10 years.
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FATIMA - Fatima Fertilizer Company Ltd.
Fatima Fertilizer’s Defensive Growth | PE 10.8x, PBV 1.8x | Dividend Yield ~6.5%
SCS Research update    5/15/2026 12:00:00 AM
The Fatima Fertilizer Company remains one of the better fertilizer plays on the PSX, supported by relatively stable off-takes (due to Mari Energies' dedicated supplies of feedstock gas), some improved cash flows (operating cash flows at PKR 9-10bn), and cost-effective strategies. PE 10.8x The company is currently yielding a PE of 10.8x and a PBV of 1.8x, while deciphering a dividend yield of ~6.5%. Gross margins ~38% The fertilizer company is benefiting from dedicated Mari feedstock supplies, lower finance costs (given de-leveraging), and urea and CAN demand, thus supporting gross margins (5-year average 38% - 42%) despite persistent inflationary pressures. Dividend payout play.... The company also maintains operating cash flows of PKR 9 bn - 10 bn and improved payout trends, thus strengthening its 'defensive positioning' within the fertilizer sector. Rear earth factor.... Moreover, FATIMA’s strategic exposure to Natural Resources Limited (NRL) alongside Mari Energies and Lucky Cement Group provides long-term upside potential through copper, gold, and rare earth exploration projects in Balochistan.
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PAKT - Pakistan Tobacco Company Ltd.
PAKT- biggest FMCG brand
SCS Research update    5/14/2026 12:00:00 AM
PAKT is deciphering a CY26 PE of 9.5x, which is notable given the company's status in the FMCG segment. PAKT also yields a P/S multiple of 0.89x, which is the cheapest among FMCGs. We also see PAKT showing a strong gross turnover of PKR 102 bn in 1QCY26. PAKT is a 20% - 25% annual net margin company, given the demands of local cigarette brands. PAKT reported a strong CY25 performance, with growth in Net Turnover, which was up by 15% YoY to PKR 139bn, supported by a 44% rise in Export Turnover to PKR 14.4bn. Profit after tax is up by 7% to PKR 29.9bn, transcending EPS, also up by 7% to PKR 116.8. On valuation, PAKT yields a trailing P/E of 11.54x, while Book value per share is PKR 183.82. PAKT demonstrated strong profitability metrics, with ROA at 31.1% and ROE at 63.6%, while Dividend yield slightly declined to 11.1%, and EV/EBITDA stood at 6.69x.
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INIL - International Industries Ltd. Consolidated
INIL notice at PSX
SCS Research update    5/13/2026 12:00:00 AM
? Diversifying beyond pipes, International Industries Limited (INIL) is moving into mining and exploration across Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. ? A new JV will handle the initiative under a consortium structure. ? Every partner is set to contribute up to Rs 500 mn in equity. ? INIL’s Board has called an EoGM on 18 June 2026 to put the tranche-wise investment to shareholders for approval via a special resolution. ? INIL is trading @161 Notice at PSX
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FECTC - Fecto Cement Ltd.
Islamabad land value in focus
SCS Research update    5/11/2026 12:00:00 AM
Fecto Cement maintains a strategically significant industrial asset through its manufacturing facility located in Sangjani, Islamabad. The plant is situated on approximately 237.64 acres of freehold land, representing a substantial long-term asset base. This area is equivalent to approximately 38,022.4 marlas. Based on an estimated market rate of PKR 0.5mn – 0.8 mn per marla, the implied valuation of the land is approximately PKR 19bn to 25bn. The per-share land value (after tax) has a minimum price of PKR 293/sh. At a higher benchmark rate of PKR 2.2 mn per marla, the implied valuation increases significantly to approximately PKR 83.65 bn. This analysis highlights the considerable intrinsic value embedded in the company’s industrial land holdings and underscores its strong asset-backed position.
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FECTC - Fecto Cement Ltd.
FECTC EV/ton is less tha $40
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    5/7/2026 12:00:00 AM
FECTC is the cheapest in terms of EV per ton, which is less than $40/ton. We expect company earnings to rebound in FY27-28. The company is situated in Sangiani, Islamabad, which is noteworthy in the calculation of its fair value.
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MTL - Millat Tractors Ltd. Consolidated
MTL Notices at PSX
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    5/7/2026 12:00:00 AM
The Board has recommended subdividing the face value of shares from Rs. 10/sh to Rs. 5/sh. Consequently, the total number of ordinary shares will increase from 199.5 mn to 399 mn. The ratio is 1:2. It means that for every 100 shares, there will be another 100 shares. The Company clarified via PSX notice that the company is currently in the preliminary stages of evaluating the feasibility of EV motorcycle production in Pakistan.
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LUCK - Lucky Cement Ltd. Consolidated
LUCK’s Diversified Dominance | PE 6.9x PBV 1.1x | Annualized Net Margin 18.15%
   5/6/2026 12:00:00 AM
Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK LUCK Snapshot ) is one of the biggest cement capacity plant holders in Pakistan withthe 15mn tons capacity. LUCK posted a robust consolidated performance in 9MFY26, reporting a Net Profit of PKR 68.47bn, 8.4% up YoY. The Gross Revenue of PKR473.72 bn is 14.5% up, driven by the strong operational footprint of the company’s diverse subsidiaries. The group achieved an EPS of PKR 43.47, reflecting an 11.1% increase over SPLY. Segmental Performance & Operational Highlights: ? Cement Operations: Local sales volumes increased 8.9% to 4.9 MT, reflecting a gradual stabilization in demand. Export volumes declined by 9.7% to 2.3 MT as part of a strategic rationalization of geographic exposure. The company is expanding its Karachi solar capacity to 89.3 MW by 4Q FY26 and has successfully commissioned UTIS technology to reduce production costs, as per the company report. ? Lucky Motor Corporation (LMC): The automobile sector observed a volume increase of approximately 46% compared to the previous year, supported by stable pricing and exchange rate parity. LMC is enhancing competitiveness against new Chinese brands through a partnership with GAC Group to introduce New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and focus on the low-cost smartphone segment. They are yet to roll out variants. Natural Resources factor… LUCK Group owns 33.33% stake in Natural Resources (NRL), and the other stakeholders in NRL are Fatima Fertilizer and Mari Energies. The key leading sectors are minerals, copper, gold, barite-lead-zinc, and exploration licenses for rare earth minerals at Chaghi, Balochistan. We expect some positive cash flows to start from 2030-32 onwards. As per the media reports, Lucky Motor Corporation’s partnership with GAC Group marks an expansion into Pakistan’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market, positioning the company in the EV mobility business.
Link: https://www.scstrade.com/research/Research%20Reports/General/Luck%20Cement%20Diversified%20Dominance....pdf
POWER - Power Cement Ltd.
POWER - Shariah compliance case
   5/6/2026 12:00:00 AM
The cement company *POWER* maintains financing arrangements. These facilities include *Istisnaa* financing amounting to PKR 4 bn, Letters of Credit totaling PKR 1.280 bn, Running *Musharakah* facilities of Rs. 2.2bn, *Murabaha* financing of Rs. 200mn, and *Islamic Export* Refinance Facilities amounting to Rs. 1.5 bn. POWER is yielding FY26 PE of 9.9x, EV PKR 24.92/sh, and Book Value of PKR 18.88
HUBC - The Hub Power Company Ltd. Consolidated
Hub Power Company Limited – Gradual earning shift | Result Review (9MFY26)
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    4/22/2026 12:00:00 AM
HUBC reflecting ‘earning shift’ from JV business We see HUBC may have recouped revenues in 9MFY26 from ‘newer’ ventures, viz., joint ventures, after agreeing to end CPP payment on the base plant last year. HUBC reported a YoY decline in revenue, with 3QFY26 sales at Rs16.5 bn, down 3.5%, and 9MFY26 revenue at Rs50.6 bn, down from Rs64.6 bn. Gross profit remained relatively stable in the quarter at Rs6.6 bn vs Rs7.0 bn last year, which actually supports our analysis. Earnings Support from JV is a positive sign We see decreasing finance costs provided some relief during the period, while income from associates and joint ventures increased to Rs11.0 bn (quarterly) and Rs32.3 bn (9MFY26). This continued reliance on non-core income highlights a gradual shift in the earnings mix. Profitability reflecting SOME's earning shift.’ Net profit slightly decreased on a YoY basis. HUBC posted Rs12.1 bn in 3QFY26 (vs Rs12.7 bn) and Rs37.7 bn for 9MFY26 (vs Rs39.0 bn). The EPS is PKR 8.33 in 3QFY26 and PKR 25.49 in 9MFY26 on the consolidated basis. Balance Sheet: Long-term liabilities decreasing is a positive sign The balance sheet remained stable with total assets around Rs. 413.6 bn. Equity saw a modest increase, while long-term liabilities declined, indicating deleveraging. However, higher current liabilities point toward increased working capital requirements. Dividend & Valuation The company announced a PKR 5/sh dividend in 3QFY26, taking the cumulative payout to PKR 15/sh for 9MFY26, implying a payout ratio of ~59% and a P/BV of ~1.31x, with a dividend yield of ~8.7%. HUBC yield FY26 PE of 6.5x below the KSE 100 PE range of 8x - 9x. POSITIVE
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UBL - United Bank Ltd.
UBL 1QCY26 Result Overview
Ahsan Muhammad Asif SCS    4/15/2026 12:00:00 AM
? UBL reported robust performance, with PAT up 38% YoY to PKR 48.98bn and EPS up 35% to 19.56/sh. ? The bank’s core income remained stable, as net interest income grew 18% YoY, reflecting consistent performance in its primary banking operations. ? NII increased significantly (+170% YoY), driven by higher gains on securities, which supported overall profitability during the period. On the expense side, costs rose ~53% YoY due to business expansion. ? UBL also announced a PKR 8/share dividend, representing a ~41% payout ratio.
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SAZEW - Sazgar Engineering Works Ltd.
Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (SAZEW) – Production & Sales increasing | Leading P/E 6.0x | PBV 2.26x | Exp Book value PKR 722/sh
Ahsan Muhammad Asif    4/7/2026 12:00:00 AM
SAZEW is currently trading at an estimated P/E of 6.0x, with an expected price-to-sales ratio of 0.73x and price-to-book value of 2.26x, based on an expected book value of PKR 722/sh. SAZEW reported a record performance in March 2026, with four-wheeler production reaching an all-time high of 1,808 units. This represents a 2.1x increase compared to the previous year and a 10% rise from the month before. The data indicates a continued upward trend in production volumes, consistent with the gradual expansion seen since 2023, as also shown in the accompanying chart. On a cumulative basis, the company’s production for the 9MFY26 totaled 12,871 units, a 55% increase over the SPLY. This growth suggests sustained expansion in manufacturing activity over the past year, likely supported by improved operational capacity and steady demand conditions. Sales performance also demonstrated notable growth during the period. In March 2026, SAZEW reported sales of 1,734 units, reflecting an 84% increase YoY and a 3% rise from the last month. The sales figures remain broadly aligned with production levels, indicating that most of the output is being absorbed by the market without a significant buildup of inventory. Cumulatively, sales for 9MFY26 reached 12,630 units, up 57% YoY. The close proximity between production and sales volumes suggests a relatively balanced demand-supply situation during the period. Overall, the data indicates continued growth in both production and sales, although the pace of month-on-month increases appears more moderate compared to the year-on-year gains. On a cumulative basis, the company’s production for the first nine months of FY2026 (9MFY26) stood at 12,871 units, a 55% increase over the SPLY. This growth suggests sustained scaling of manufacturing activity over the past year, potentially supported by improved operational capacity and steady demand. Sales performance also showed notable growth during the period. In March 2026, SAZEW reported sales of 1,734 units, reflecting an 84% increase YoY and a 3% rise MoM. The sales figures remain broadly aligned with production levels, indicating that most of the output is being absorbed in the market without a significant buildup of inventory. Cumulatively, sales for 9MFY26 reached 12,630 units, up 57% YoY. The close proximity between production and sales volumes suggests a relatively balanced demand-supply position during the period. Overall, the data points to continued expansion in both production and sales, though the pace of month-on-month growth appears more moderate compared to year-on-year gains. The Board has approved an estimated capital expenditure of PKR 22.0 bn (excluding land cost), to be financed through a mix of internal cash generation and bank borrowings. Upon completion, the total installed production/assembly capacity of the four-wheeler plant is expected to increase to 54,000 units per annum on a single-shift basis, indicating a planned scale-up in operations over the medium term.
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